Ukraine is rich in critical raw materials, with significant deposits of lithium, graphite, cobalt, nickel and titanium—elements that are crucial to the global economy. However, its mineral sector faces increasing risk as the ongoing conflict with Russia threatens key mining operations, including the Pokrovske mine in Donetsk, which is vital for the country’s coking coal supply.
The Pokrovsk mine under threat
The Pokrovsk mine, the largest coking coal producer in Ukraine, has been a cornerstone of the nation’s metallurgical industry for decades. With reserves of 200 million tons of coal, the mine has historically supplied vital coal to major steelmakers such as ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih and Dnipro Metallurgical Plant. However, due to Russia’s advancing military forces near the Donetsk region, this strategic resource is under threat. If Pokrovsk falls under Russian control, Ukraine will face severe economic consequences, including a significant rise in metal product prices.
The Ukrainian metallurgical industry, which has already been impacted by the war, is sounding alarms over the potential loss of the mine. While Ukraine’s steel production increased by 28.2% in 2024 compared to the previous year, the loss of Pokrovsk coal could reverse any progress. According to Anatoliy Starovoyt, head of the Ukrainian coke-chemical association “Ukrkoks,” the country could face a sharp decline in steel production if it loses access to local coking coal.
Ukraine has been importing coal since 2014, but with a total collapse of domestic coking coal production, it would be forced to rely on even more expensive imports. This would raise costs for metallurgical plants, further straining the economy and putting thousands of jobs at risk in Ukraine’s industrial regions. The logistical challenges of importing coal via sea or land routes would only add to the financial burden, leading to steep price hikes for steel and other metal products.
A deeper crisis in Donbas
The Pokrovsk mine is not the only mineral resource at risk in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Donbas, historically one of the largest coal mining centers in Europe, is also home to iron ore, limestone, salt, and, more recently, lithium deposits. The region’s lithium potential is of increasing interest globally due to the growing demand for batteries in electric vehicles and other renewable technologies.
As Russian forces advance in the region, they have started to seize control of critical mineral resources, including lithium, which is becoming a strategically vital raw material. Petro Andryushchenko, an advisor to the mayor of Mariupol, reported that Russia has already begun issuing permits for lithium mining in Donetsk, signaling the region’s strategic importance to Moscow. Military expert Oleg Zhdanov argues that Russia’s push to capture Donbas is not only about territorial control but also about securing these valuable resources.
The strategic importance of lithium
Lithium, an essential component in the production of electric vehicle batteries and various electronic devices, is rapidly becoming a crucial asset on the global stage. Ukraine’s potential lithium deposits, particularly in Donetsk and Luhansk, could make it a key player in the global lithium market if developed. However, if these deposits fall under Russian control, it could shift the balance of power in the global minerals market, further harming Ukraine’s economy and its strategic position in Europe’s supply chains.
Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal highlighted the importance of these resources at the Yalta European Strategy conference, noting that Ukraine possesses 21 out of the 30 elements deemed critical by Europe. These materials, including lithium, graphite, and titanium, have the potential to support Ukraine’s economic future, especially if the country becomes integrated into European and global value chains. However, the ongoing conflict threatens Ukraine’s ability to tap into these resources, endangering the country’s long-term economic stability.
Economic impact and the need for strategic action
Ukraine’s mining sector is essential not only for its industrial output but also for the nation’s post-war recovery. Losing control over Pokrovske and other mining operations in Donbas would lead to a catastrophic decline in steel production, causing unemployment and severe economic hardship in industrial regions. The reduction in steel exports could further damage Ukraine’s economy, which has already suffered due to the war.
Political scientist Svitlana Kushnir warned that the Ukrainian government has been too slow to diversify its supply of coking coal, despite experts pointing out the vulnerability of Pokrovske to military action. She emphasized that Ukraine’s under-preparedness for this crisis reflects a lack of strategic foresight and the urgent need for proactive measures to secure the country’s vital mineral resources.
The situation in Donbas highlights the broader global competition for critical minerals. The international community is increasingly recognizing the need for alternative sources of materials like lithium, cobalt, and nickel as the world transitions to renewable energy and electric vehicles. Ukraine’s minerals could play a crucial role in this transition, but only if the country can regain control over its occupied territories and ensure the safe extraction and processing of these raw materials.
A geopolitical and economic imperative
Ukraine’s struggle to maintain control over its mineral resources is not just an internal issue—it has significant geopolitical implications. The loss of critical raw materials to Russia could alter the balance of power in the global minerals market, giving Russia leverage over the future of the energy transition. Moreover, these minerals are central to the manufacturing of electric vehicles, renewable energy technologies, and essential electronic devices. If Ukraine loses its resource base, it risks becoming economically dependent on foreign suppliers for these materials.
The United States and the European Union have a vested interest in ensuring that Ukraine’s mineral resources remain under its control. The development of Ukraine’s lithium and other critical materials could help diversify global supply chains and reduce dependence on countries like China, which currently controls much of the world’s rare earth element production. Furthermore, the extraction of coal, lithium, and other minerals in Ukraine could help fund the country’s post-war recovery, especially if the international community supports Ukraine’s mining industry and infrastructure development.
Conclusion
The war in Ukraine is not only a military conflict but also a battle for the country’s valuable mineral resources. The potential loss of the Pokrovske mine and other critical mining operations in Donbas would have devastating economic consequences for Ukraine. The international community must recognize the strategic importance of Ukraine’s mineral deposits and support the country in securing these resources for future economic stability. The development of Ukraine’s raw material sector could provide both immediate and long-term economic security, helping to rebuild the country after the war and securing its place as a vital player in global supply chains.
